Middlebury, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

522
FXUS61 KBTV 080202
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1002 PM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will approach from the west tonight, and cross
our area late on Tuesday. This system will bring a round of
accumulating snow to the region, with a few inches of snow
possible, especially in the northern mountains. Tuesday will be
the coldest day of the week, then we trend back toward normal
temperatures from mid week onward. More widespread precipitation
arrives by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 959 PM EDT Monday...With each passing hour, we are slowly
seeing saturation occur across western New York and inching
eastward. Radar returns continue to look decent but the dry
layer continues to remain entrenched across the North Country.
The latest 00Z HRRR that just came in is showing a similar
picture to what we have been thinking over the past few days
with a sharp line of showers expected overnight into the early
morning hours on Tuesday. The model soundings show less
instability that previous runs which hints we may not see the
higher snowfall rates once thought. A cross section of the FGEN
shows the best forcing is well displaced from the DGZ which will
only act to limit efficient snowfall processes.

Previous Discussion...It ended up being a fairly pleasant
afternoon today, particularly in northern areas where sun has been
more prevalent. The fair weather will be coming to an end tonight
and Tuesday though as a potent upper trough and associated surface
low will bring widespread accumulating snow.

The upper trough is currently digging into the Great Lakes this
afternoon, and it will continue to shift its way eastward overnight
and Tuesday. Meanwhile, the surface low will likewise move eastward,
moving from the Great Lakes into the St Lawrence Valley tonight,
then along the international border during the day Tuesday. As the
system moves eastward, it will drag a strong cold front along in its
wake, with a colder airmass spreading in behind it. Guidance
continues to show a band of strong frontogenesis associated with the
front, and can already see the resultant moderate to heavy
precipitation upstream. This band of precipitation will move
eastward into our area overnight, entering the St Lawrence Valley
around or shortly after midnight, then progressing eastward through
the Adirondacks during the early morning hours. Although
temperatures will be in the mid/upper 30s ahead of the
precipitation, expect the precipitation will be heavy enough for wet
bulb cooling to allow rain to quickly change to snow as the
atmosphere saturates. Note that the HREF ensembles indicate snowfall
rates exceeding 0.5 inch/hr, so roads could quickly become snow
covered. Temperatures will fall below freezing with the frontal
passage as well, so any wet roads/snow melt could freeze, though
temperatures won`t drop much below 30F. Unfortunately, the heavy
band of precipitation looks to arrive in the Champlain Valley
sometime 5-8 am, just in time for the morning commute. As the band
moves into the higher terrain, snowfall rates will approach 1 in/hr,
especially along the western slopes in the northern Greens. Again,
this could make for a tricky commute Tuesday morning. Anyone
traveling in the morning should plan on giving themselves some extra
time to reach their destination.

Once the front moves through and the initial band of moderate/heavy
precipitation exits to the east, we`ll get a brief break in the
action as the dry slot wraps in around the low, which will be riding
along the international border. Winds will abate briefly as the low
moves through, but once it goes by, west/northwest winds will
increase, becoming gusty to around 30 mph. Upslope snow will develop
on these northwest winds, and we`ll once again see localized
snowfall rates approaching 1 in/hr along the western slopes of the
northern Adirondacks and northern Greens. Temperatures may rebound a
bit during the day, but highs will still only be in the upper 20s to
mid 30s, so expect snow to continue to accumulate, especially on
grassy or untreated surfaces. The upslope snow will persist through
the afternoon and evening, then gradually wind down Tuesday night.
Snowfall totals will be highest in the northern mountains,
especially along the favored upslope sides; 3 to 6 inches will be
possible in those locations, with higher amounts above 2500 ft.
Elsewhere, 1 to 3 inches of snow will be common, except an inch or
less in most of the Champlain Valley and the lower CT River Valley.
Tuesday night will be cold as temperatures will dip into the teens
and 20s, with brisk northwest winds gradually abating overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 314 PM EDT Monday...Any lingering showers will taper off
Wednesday morning, with dry conditions expected to prevail
throughout much of the day. Daytime highs will be in the 30s and
low 40s, which is several degrees warmer than Tuesday but still well
below climatological normals for this time of year. A few breaks in
the clouds will be possible throughout the afternoon, with
relatively clear skies expected overnight. These clearing skies will
allow for some cold overnight lows, with locations dropping into the
teens and 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 314 PM EDT Monday...After the brief reprieve in the unsettled
weather, chances of precipitation return Thursday night with an
upper level trough amplifying over the region. There looks to be
enough cold air in place that some high elevation snow showers may
be possible at the onset of precipitation, with most locations
seeing rain. While there is still plenty of uncertainty among, it
looks to be a relatively showery and unsettled few days to end the
week into Saturday, with surface low pressure of the coast pushing
eastward. Despite the showery pattern, the NBM probabilities of
72-hr rainfall amounts are generally 20 to 50 percent across the
region, with the highest probabilities across southern Vermont.
Heading into Sunday and early next week, ridging looks to try and
build in and bring another break in the unsettled weather.
Temperatures will trend closer to seasonal normals, with highs
generally in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to continue
through about 03Z-07Z when ceilings thicken and lower as
previously forecast. There is, however, a good amount of dry air
in the atmosphere this evening and latest models are trending
later with the arrival of MVFR conditions and precipitation
reaching the surface. Precipitation is most likely to arrive by
about 05Z-11Z, though it may be difficult to get visibilities
down below 3 miles and ceilings below 1000 feet above ground
level, especially at first. Best chance for any IFR level
conditions during this initial 05Z-11Z period will be at MPV,
RUT, and MSS. Conditions may improve tomorrow morning, with
many sites returning to VFR conditions by about 12Z-18Z, though
some sites (particularly SLK, MSS) could keep ceilings 3000
feet and below for much of the day. South to southeasterly winds
this evening 5-10 knots turn more westerly tomorrow morning,
gusting up to 15-30 knots by about 08Z-18Z following the
frontal passage.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Clay/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Storm